Not So Fast

Posted by Carol Coletta on August 05, 2008

Our colleague Joe Cortright, author of Driven to the Brink and many other reports from CEOs for Cities, reminded us today that too much reporting is of the "all or nothing" quality.

The rising gas/house prices story must mean that either one of two possible narratives is true:

    "Exurbs are turning into ghost towns" and "we will all decide to live in apartment houses"

    OR

    $4 gallon a gas will lead to absolutely no changes in behavior.  We'll drive the Tahoe and live in the 4,000 square foot house, just as we did before

It's yet another case of inflated rhetoric and using anecdotes to trump data.

The truth is plainly between these two points.  Most Americans will continue to live in single family homes and own cars.  But gradually, we'll see a shift -- fewer people choosing the exurban, megahouse, Tahoe lifestyle, and more looking for inner ring locations with walkability and transit.  Even in Portland, the rate of car ownership per person is pretty close to the national average.  We just drive about 15% less.

People forget that there is huge scope to change our behavior with our current collection of houses, jobs and transportation assets.

But it's never too early (or too late) to begin making those changes.