Time to Accept NOLA as Shrinking City?

Three years into the recovery from Katrina, New Orleans' population has grown only modestly and resettlement has slowed to a trickle.  Times-Picayune reporter Gordon Russell asks, Is it time to recognize New Orleans as a shrinking city? 

Russell writes, "Embracing or even accepting a downsized city can be painful for leaders and residents accustomed to seeing their town as the center of the universe -- with reason. Not only is New Orleans the birthplace of jazz, it also was the nation's third-largest city a century and a half ago, trailing only New York and Baltimore.

"Today, New Orleans ranks somewhere between No. 55 and No. 60 in population, depending on the estimate used. And that ranking seems unlikely to change much: ESRI, a leading market research firm, projects New Orleans will gain only 15,000 residents in the next five years.

"Put bluntly, Mayor Ray Nagin's declaration that a laissez-faire 'market forces' approach would drive New Orleans' population higher than before the flood seems well off the mark. Although some neighborhoods have recovered strongly, in many the population remains down by 50 percent or more. Across the flood zone, ghost homes sit empty by the hundreds on blighted, overgrown blocks."

This two-part story generated hundreds of comments.  (a good sign, actually, of a robust civic conversation)  And as evidenced by the sentiment expressed, it's clear that the idea of New Orleans as a shrinking city won't be easy to sell.  This was among my favorites:  "Cities don't shrink; only humanity's commitment to them."

Nonetheless, Russell treats shrinking cities as a series field of study and does a thorough review of the strategies employed for "smart decline."   

New Orleans-based architect Steven Bingler says shrinkage offers opportunities. As he told Russell, "When the warehouse is in disuse, should it be demolished? Can the site be reused in an inventive new way? Can green space be used to mitigate flood risk? Should we rethink zoning laws in lightly populated areas? Can we deed vacant land to neighbors so it will be better kept? Do we need to sustain the entire network of roads, sewer pipes, bridges and gas lines?"

These are questions a number of Northeast and Midwest cities are beginning to ask. But New Orleans will be the first Southern city of any size to openly address them.

  

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